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Applying the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework to Uganda

December 16, 2015

Here’s a blog I just wrote about work we commissioned with Justin Lin and Jiajun Xu of the Peking Center for New Structural Economics on the application of the Growth Identification and Facilitation Approach to Uganda, the first time it’s been done in a least developed country.

Hiatus

May 27, 2015

Please note i’ve stopped updating this site, hopefully temporarily, as i’ve started a new job. More soon — with luck (or not, depending on how you see these things).

Solomon Islands Trade Policy Framework

February 28, 2015

The trade policy framework myself and a colleague have been working on has been endorsed by the Solomon Islands government.

“The vision of the Trade Policy Framework is to: ‘Build the productive capacity of the Solomon Islands economy via sustainable trade and investment. The resulting creation of wealth and employment opportunities is aimed at promoting human development, reducing poverty and improving living standards for Solomon Islanders.'”

Radicalism in a time of austerity

January 26, 2015

Just a couple of quick thoughts on radicalism in the aftermath of the Greek elections. Paul Krugman rightly points out that Syriza’s policies aren’t radical. Syriza is proposing sensible things: rejigging its unfair debt obligations, investing and reflating the economy, just like in Germany after the second world war. These policies are what any sensible policymaker would do in response to years of failed austerity. It’s the eurocrats who are radical, proposing fiscal rectitude in a full-on depression.

The situation reminds me of Scotland’s Radical Independence Conference last year after the referendum. Several speakers pointed out that what the so-called radicals wanted was pretty mainstream. Calls for tax to go up a bit aren’t exactly Trotskyite. The top rate of income tax under Margaret Thatcher was 60%, higher than any Scottish party or campaign group is currently proposing. It isn’t ‘extreme’ to rid the country of weapons of mass destruction or to ask for a society which looks after the worst off.

One reading of this situation is that conservatives have succeeded in dragging the debate so far to the right that today’s firebrands are reduced to saying things that would have seemed middle-of-the-road two decades ago. Maybe that’s partly true.

But it’s also important to remember that radical doesn’t mean extreme or fanatical. It’s from the Latin radix, meaning root. There’s a sense in which radicalism is to do with stripping away the superficial and delving to the bottom of a problem. Today’s radicals are, like their forebears, addressing the roots of economic and social concerns. They’re not posturing, wild-eyed fanatics. In a sense, it’s a source of optimism that many people have reached the end of their patience and are being forced to see things as they really are, coalescing around the doable and showing up right-wingers and austerians as the fantasists.

Borrowing is almost free

January 12, 2015

Here’s further evidence to back up my earlier post, proving that Cameron is talking utter rubbish. As Richard Murphy says,

“If we had a debt crisis very clearly risk would have increased and so interest rates would have risen. But they haven’t. Interest rates have fallen, significantly, and not just to reflect inflation.

So first of all we have no gilt crisis.

Second, we have no affordability crisis.

And third, we have a lost opportunity to invest at rates lower than we have almost ever known, which lost opportunity is why we have an economic crisis.”

I thought i’d post a graph of benchmark gilt yields going back to 1984. It shows quite clearly that borrowing costs are at some of their lowest levels ever. There was no spike in yields during the crisis. Investors do not remotely think the government might default, nor do they think spending plans might be unsustainably high. More likely they expect years of stagnation or low growth.

It’s just ludicrous to suggest, as Cameron and Miliband do, that anything other than buttock-clenching austerity will be the “path to ruin”. Any future interest rate payments on debt issued now are profoundly not the main problem. If it wanted, the government would have plenty of wiggle-room within which to reinflate the economy.

Long-term gilt yields

The data is from the Bank of England’s series “annual average yield from British government securities, 10-year nominal par yield”.

The non-economics of Desperate Dave

January 12, 2015

David Cameron today again repeated the nonsense claim that anything other than swingeing cuts will cause “economic chaos”. In an indication of just how impoverished mainstream British political debate has become, he lambasted Labour’s plans to balance the budget but keep spending on infrastructure as if it were Zimbabwe-esque profligacy.

Yet far from lowering the deficit, the cuts are one reason why the economy has suffered its worst period of growth since the Great Depression in the 1930s. Balancing the budget is exactly the wrong medicine in a crisis. The coalition has sucked so much money out of the economy that demand and investment have collapsed, raising welfare payments and reducing tax revenues.

The mainstream media’s fixation with the last five-minute’s news means that they tend to focus on headline economic growth, which recently hit a quarterly rate of 0.7%. But the economy shrank so much after the crisis hit in 2008 that it was likely to rebound sooner or later. Because of population growth, it’s still smaller per head than before the crisis.

Here’s a graph Cameron doesn’t want you to see:

Growth in UK real GDP per capita since crisis

Data source: Office for National Statistics

Taking inflation into account economic output is now 7.3% smaller per head than at the start of the crisis in the first quarter of 2008. We’ve only now climbed back to the levels of about 2005. Of course averages don’t tell the whole story, and a small minority have become much wealthier whilst most people have suffered much more, but of the G7 group of rich countries Britain’s economy has performed second-worst, ahead of only Italy.

Alongside slowing global growth part of the reason for this economic catastrophe – the worst for 80 years – is that the government has extracted tens of billions of pounds from the economy. These sort of cuts are economically counterproductive during a recession.

The recent fall in unemployment to a still-unacceptable 6% has been the result of an increase in part-time, badly-paid and insecure work. People aren’t being paid enough to contribute to government coffers.

The fall in pay is a remarkable feature of the crisis. Again, accounting for inflation, the wages of a British worker have suffered their longest sustained fall since records began in 1862. The International Labour Organisation says that British pay has plunged more than even in Italy. In the five best performing countries shown in the following graph, wages have gone up.

Average real wage index for developed G20 countries, 2007-13

Average real wage index for G20, ILO

Because we’ve got less pay in our pockets, less money is spent than it otherwise might be, which in turn suppresses growth. Consumer expenditure collapsed during the crisis and is only just recovering. Business investment has shrunk to unprecedented levels as too few people can afford to buy companies’ products and services, and companies remain uncertain about the future. Productivity remains abysmal. I suspect that a fragile recovery based on the services sector and badly-paid jobs will peter out as the underlying economic conditions remain so bleak.

Instead of the debt falling due to government spending cuts, it’s forecast to keep going up until next year because the economy is doing worse than it otherwise would. In fact public debt isn’t particularly high by historical standards and it’s not the main problem, especially when borrowing costs are at such historic lows.

What the Tories fail to mention is that it was private debt which caused the crisis, not government debt. Private debt, mostly financial sector and corporate, grew to four-and-a-half times GDP, compared with public debt which is now 80.4% of GDP.

The deficit has ‘only’ halved as a proportion of GDP since the coalition took power, to £91.3 billion, despite Osborne’s promise to eliminate it by now. This failure is because of the cuts.

There’s more madness to come. Osborne said in his autumn statement that over the next five years he wants to shrink public spending to levels not seen since before the second world war. £60 billion will come from public service cuts. That’s nearly twice the defence budget or the equivalent of dualling Scotland’s A9 road from Perth to Inverness 143 times. Schools, health and foreign aid are ring-fenced, so some departments will be ransacked. This amounts to a full-scale attack on the state.

What we should be doing – and what Scotland could do given full economic powers – is reinflating the economy. Building infrastructure would encourage businesses to invest. Tackling the housing shortage would stimulate demand. We could develop a modern, strategic industrial policy which built a new, environmentally-sustainable economy based on Scotland’s advantages in sustainable energy. This investment would eventually pay for itself, particularly when borrowing is as cheap as it’s ever been.

Osborne and Cameron have taken us so far down the rabbit hole that we’ve confused up with down, good with bad. We should be rebuilding the economy rather than trashing it; looking after each other instead of accepting the cuts. All that rhetoric about hairshirts and tightening our belts is nonsense. We’re being punished when punishment isn’t the answer.

The Importance of Trade and Productive Capacity Post-2015: Lessons from the Pacific

December 17, 2014
DSCN3362

Here’s an article I published this month with the Commonwealth on the importance of trade and productive capabilities in the sustainable development goals to be adopted next year. In addition to social and climate-related goals, the least developed countries must be helped to build their domestic economies.

 

This issue of Commonwealth Trade Hot Topics examines how the sustainable development goals (SDGs) that will be adopted in 2015 can better reflect the trade and development-related needs of least developed countries (LDCs) and small island states such as the Pacific island countries (PICs). It draws lessons from four Pacific Diagnostic Trade Integration Studies (DTISs) – a series of comprehensive trade analyses aimed at improving countries’ ability to access global markets and to benefit from trade. The paper argues that, in addition to market access, focus should be placed on behind-the-border measures including infrastructure, rules of origin, negotiating capacity, standards and targeting aid for trade.

Click here (pdf) to read the article.

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